Obaseki vs Ize Iyamu

With less than one month before the edo state polls,lets look at the chances and odds of each candidate. The track is set for who will lead the “Big Heart of the Nation” for the next four years. This article is written based on strictly probability and the writer makes no declaration and he or she remains neutral and apolitical when writing the article. This article is based only political analysis only.

We shall look at three basic things in consideration in the election. Lets dig in.

1.   Power  of Incumbency: Obaseki

As we all know, Incumbency plays a huge factor when studying the events of the upcoming polls. To be honest, I will remain neutral on this one but I believe Governor Godwin Obaseki has done quite well in his first four years as Edo state Governor. Although, I know some will say otherwise well that’s your personal opinion. Hardly has a sitting governor been usurped while seeking for second term.

We saw in the 2015 presidential election the incumbent president shown the door, in 2019 also, we saw governor Ambode of Lagos, not return as APC governorship candidate even though he was hugely expected to.

So the odds are quite low on this one. I say this is quite not a enough reason why he will win the election.

2.   Who Holds The State’s Capital City? Obaseki And Ize Iyamu

Now this is quite crucial, when considering who wins the forthcoming polls. Are people of Benin City behind their incumbent governor or are they seeking a new one? Well the ball is in the air on that one. The state capital is a crucial fort to hold onto for any candidate as it holds sufficient power to bring back or bring in any candidate of its choice.

3.   The People And Their Regions

Regions? Yes the regions. The peoples SAY matters a lot. Let’s look at the region on after the other excluding Benin City the capital.

Esan: Obaseki

The major party in the Esan region seems to be the People Democratic Party, PDP. The majority of them seem to have thrown their weight on Governor Godwin Obaseki. Why? They feel he did not abandon them as they said that the last administration did? PDP was well received in Esan as compared to the All Progressive Party APC during the campaigns. There is a high demand for the return of the incumbent governor.

Etsako: Ize Iyamu

It is no surprising news that pst. Ize Iyamu has gained ground in Etsako, Auchi, going as far as getting a title there, But governor Obaseki not far  behind, as he too got support from Iyahmo, Adam Oshiomole home town. I must say Obaseki will slug it out Ize Iyamu for Etsako.

Akoko Edo: ?

A region that could determine the next four years. Akoko Edo remains a question mark as I cannot seem to point out who they will back.

Based on regions, it is a 50-50 chance.

4.   The Federal Might And The Ruling Party: Ize Iyamu

The ruling party of federal government may try to pull some strings on behalf its state candidate, well, we may or may not see it play out.

One thing is for sure EDO must decide. We must be certain for sure that it would be an election to be remembered, as it is going to shape the state history and the nation as well.

The likely winner is Godwin Obaseki with a 60 to 40 win ratio.